AMLO TrackingPoll AMLO Approval Ratings Continue to Decline, July 16

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The #AMLOTrackingPoll is a daily statistical exercise on the approval or disapproval of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, carried out by Roy Campos’ Mitofsky Consultation for El Economista. According to Campos, it is a digital measurement of the public function.

Inaccuracies regarding AMLO approval and other La Mañanera verifications

 Inaccuracies regarding AMLO approval and other La Mañanera verifications

Two years after winning the presidential elections, AMLO said he currently has a level of approval higher than the percentage of votes that gave him the victory at the polls on July 1, 2018, but the results of studies and surveys vary and some contradict his Claim, even polls indicate that more and more Mexicans disapprove of his government.

As has been happening recently, last week there were few verifiable phrases said by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in the morning press conferences, most of them true and the rest half true.

A total of 23 factual messages were found from June 29 to July 3 in AMLO’s speech in the “morning”, of which 18 were true and 5 misleading, as they contained imprecise information and data regarding government issues, economy and security.

Total24CATEGORYQUALIFICATION
7ECONOMY 7 True
twoCIVIL PROTECTION2 True
5GOVERNMENT4 True3 misleading
6SECURITY4 True2 misleading
twoBUDGET2 True
twoWELLNESS2 True

MONDAY, JUNE 29

Category: Economy

Topic: Lost Jobs

Phrase: “555 thousand jobs were lost only in the workers enrolled in Social Security, 555 thousand jobs of a little more than 20 million 500 thousand registered workers, in April 550 thousand were lost; for May the loss was less, approximately 340 thousand, 340, 345 thousand ”.

Result: True

In a statement from the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) it is mentioned that as of May 31, there are 19 million 583 thousand 170 jobs. Of these, 86.7 percent are permanent and 13.3 percent are temporary.

In May, a decrease of 344 thousand 526 jobs was registered, which have a monthly rate of -1.7 percent.

Throughout the year, 838,272 jobs have been lost, of which 70 percent are permanent.

(See links 1)

Category: Security

Theme: Intentional homicides

Phrase: “It is a state (Guanajuato) that has very high rates, homicide rates, it is the state with the most homicides.”

Result: True

Guanajuato, until May 2020, registered 1,405 intentional homicides. That places him first in the country in murders, above the State of Mexico, which has reported 1,595 intentional homicides.
(See link 3)

Category: Security

Theme: Homicides

Phrase: “We are talking about more than 10 percent of the homicides that are committed in the country, the average must be around 15 percent of the homicides that are committed in the country (they are registered in Guanajuato).”

Result: Misleading

During 2020, Guanajuato has counted 1,405 intentional homicides, of the national total, 12,184 intentional homicides, representing 11.53 percent.

Although the figure is greater than 10 percent, it is not close to 15, both figures mentioned by López Obrador.
(See link 3)

TUESDAY, JUNE 30

Category: Civil Protection

Theme: Peñitas Dam

Phrase: “In the report that Civil Protection gives me, it reassures me, because that Peñitas dam is at 86 percent.”

In the National Water Information System Monitoring the Main Dams of Mexico of the National Water Commission (Conagua), it established that the percentage of filling of the Ángel Albino Corzo dam or “Peñitas” dam was 90% at the beginning of the week.

(See link 4)

Category: Civil Protection

Theme: Peñitas Dam

Phrase: “Until a week ago the Peñitas dam had 95 percent of its capacity in rainy seasons.”

Result:  True

A week before the press conference of the President of the Republic, Conagua reported that the Peñitas dam had a 93% fill rate.

(See link 4)

Category: Economy

Theme: Employment

Phrase: “In April, 555 thousand jobs of workers enrolled in Social Security were lost, and in May it was less, there were 345 thousand, and in June we are not going to reach 100,000 lost jobs.”

Result: True

According to statements from the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) as of April 30 of this year, there was a decrease of 555,247 jobs out of the 19 million workers who had before the IMSS.

As of May 31, 344,526 job losses were registered throughout the country.

According to the same data from the IMSS and the organization México, how are we doing? In the first four-month period of 2020 (January to April), a decrease of 493,746 posts with Social Security was reported, while from January to May the loss of jobs was 838,272 people.

(See links 5 to 7)

Category: Budget

Topic: Budget for parties

Phrase: “There is an initiative, I think, in the Legislative Branch to reduce the budget for the parties.”

Result: True

In April 2020, the Morena Parliamentary Group in the Chamber of Deputies presented an initiative in which it proposed a 50% decrease in public funding for the country’s political parties and to channel the remaining resources to health and revival programs. the economy to face the health emergency due to Covid-19.

(See links 9 to 10)

Category: Budget

Topic: National Electoral Institute (INE)

Phrase: “It costs a lot to make elections, they spend a lot.”

Result: True

The budget of the National Electoral Institute (INE) for 2020 is 11,421 million pesos, while its 2019 budget was 11,303 million, with a 1 percent increase in resources.

In 2018, the year of presidential elections and other public positions, the budget was 17,426 million; and in 2017 the budget was 12,204 million pesos.

(See links 11 and 12)

WEDNESDAY JULY 1

Category: Government

Theme: Elections

Phrase: “Two years of that historic election (in which AMLO won the Presidency).”

Result: True

In the federal electoral elections that were held on July 1, 2018, in the PREP Acts, Andrés Manuel López Obrador obtained 24 million 127 thousand 451 votes, that is, 52.96 percent of the total.

In second place was Ricardo Anaya Cortés, who obtained 10 million 249 thousand 705 votes, which represent 22.49 percent.

In the 2012 federal elections, Enrique Peña Nieto won the elections with 18 million 727 thousand 398 votes, which is 38.15 percent of the total. López Obrador was in second place with 15 million 535 thousand 117 votes in favor, that is to say 31.15 percent.

As noted, the difference between first and second place during the 2018 elections is considerably greater, compared to the 2012 elections.

On the other hand, BBC News Mundo, on July 2, 2018, published a note explaining points why López Obrador’s victory was historic:

Shortly after the voting modules closed, candidates Anaya and Meade acknowledged their defeat, wishing López Obrador success. This gesture had never been observed in the other elections.

His government, according to the note, represented a new model. Being anti-systematic, he began his social struggles with the indigenous sector of the Mexican southeast.

Added to this is his leftist policy, which had never reached the country’s presidency.

The large number of voters that López Obrador obtained and the sociopolitical profile that his government represented made the federal electoral elections a historic moment for Mexico.

(See links 13 to 15)

Category: Government

Topic: Application to the WTO

Phrase: “That is why he is also running and Mexico supports him, the government I represent, to be the director general of the World Trade Organization.” (Jesús Seade) ”.

Result: True

On the federal government page, in a statement, the following statement is found: “The Mexican government, through the Ministry of the Economy, formally presented in Geneva the candidacy of Jesús Seade Kuri as director general of the World Trade Organization ( WTO) ”.

(See link 16)

Category: Government

Topic: Approval

Phrase: “We have more approval than the percentage of votes we obtained two years ago.”

Result: Misleading

According to the PREP Acts, Andrés Manuel López Obrador obtained 24 million 127 thousand 451 votes, that is, 52.96 percent of the total, in the 2018 federal electoral elections.

In the Mitofsky Consultation for The Economist , the approval of the López Obrador government is at 47.5 percent, while disapproval is 52.5 percent.

On the other hand, the survey by El Financiero indicates that in June the popularity of the president is 56% and 42% disapproval.

52.8% agree with the AMLO government, indicated the Strategic Communication Cabinet, but for the GEA Group of Economists and Associates and ISA Investigaciones Sociales Aplicadas SC approval for the president only reaches 39 percent.

As there are different conclusions in a variety of opinion studies, the phrase is considered misleading.

(See links 17 and 18)

Category: Security

Theme: Intentional homicides

Phrase: “Yesterday there were few or the number of homicides was below average, Guanajuato first.”

Result : True

In the Criminal Incidence of Common Jurisdiction it has been counted until May 2020, which is a total of 152 days. 12,184 intentional homicides have been committed. On average, 80 intentional homicides are committed per day.

On June 30, 73 homicides were counted nationwide. In Guanajuato there were 10 intentional homicides, which place it first, above Chihuahua, which registered eight.

(See links 3 and 19)

Category: Security

Theme: Intentional homicides

Phrase: “Look, yesterday 73 homicides in the country, seven states without homicides, in Guanajuato 10 of the 73, 14 percent.”

Result: True

In the Safety Report, in the victims reported for the crime of homicide, 73 homicides were registered nationwide.

Aguascalientes, Baja California Sur, Campeche, Guerrero, Querétaro, Quintana Roo and Tlaxcala did not record any intentional homicide.

Guanajuato recorded 10 intentional homicides, which represents 13.69 percent of the total.

The 14 percent referenced by López Obrador, may be a rounding of decimals for practicality.

(See link 19)

THURSDAY, JULY 2

Category: Well-being

Theme: Pensions

Phrase: “An operation has already begun to provide four months of pension to older adults and children with disabilities in advance.”

Result: True

The Ministry of Welfare released on July 2 a statement in which it was mentioned that on July 1 the payment of pensions to older adults and people with disabilities was advanced.

The payment for July, August, September and October will be provided, which corresponds to 5,240 pesos in total.

On March 26 this advance had also been made, offering the payment of the two-month periods March-April, May-June.

(See links 20 and 21)

Category: Economy

Theme: Remittances

Phrase: “Yesterday the Bank of Mexico announced that from April to May remittances increased 18 percent.”

Result: True

According to Banco de México, the income from remittances in May was 3,379,429,893 million dollars.

This means that it increased 18% compared to April, where the total was $ 2,861,379644 million.

(See link 22)

Category: Well-being

Theme: Unemployment

Phrase: “In April, 555 thousand (jobs in Social Security) were lost.”

Result: True

The Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) announced that during April of this year, there was a decrease of 555 thousand 247 jobs, as a consequence of the coronavirus health emergency.

(See link 23)

Category: Economy

Theme: Remittances

Phrase: “But when we talk about almost four billion dollars a month, as happened in March, four billion dollars (in remittances) or 36 thousand, 40 billion dollars a year.”

Result: True

According to the Economic Information System, during the month of March an income in remittances of 4 thousand 7 million dollars was registered.

Likewise, during 2019, the total income from remittances was 36 thousand 45 million dollars.

(See link 22)

Category: Security

Topic: Criminal incidence

Phrase: “Look at this, that is yesterday: 14 states without homicide and 36 percent of the 92 in Guanajuato, 53 percent in three states, Guanajuato, Puebla and Michoacán, but well, 33-8-8”.

Result: True

It is detailed in the report of the first day of July 2020 of the Secretariat of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC), that indeed 14 states were presented without homicides.

On the other hand, 92 homicides were presented nationwide, of which Guanajuato represents 35. 86 percent. While in the states of Puebla and Michoacán there were 8 homicides in both.

Putting the totals of the three states together, it represents 53.26 percent nationwide.

(See link 19)

FRIDAY JULY 3

Category: Security

Theme: Intentional homicides

Phrase: “Look how it is: three states without homicide and 22 percent of the 68 homicides yesterday in Guanajuato (on July 2, 2020).”

Result: Misleading

According to the Security Report, on July 2, 2020, Aguascalientes, Baja California Sur, Campeche, Chiapas, Colima, Durango, Hidalgo, Morelos, Oaxaca, Querétaro, Quintana Roo, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas did not present any intentional homicide. There are thirteen states, not three.

There were 68 intentional homicides in total, of which 15 were registered in Guanajuato, that is, 22.05 percent.

These data are correct, however, the number of states without intentional homicides is not.
(See link 19)

Category: Government

Topic: AMLO exit from the PRI

Phrase: “ I made the decision to leave the PRI in 1983 and in 1988 I wrote a book about electoral fraud in Tabasco.”

Result: Misleading

The former governor of Morelos Graco Ramírez, who invited López Obrador to join the National Democratic Front, told Verificado 2018 that “in the 1988 presidential election, Andrés Manuel López Obrador was in the PRI. He did not have a participation in the campaign of Carlos Salinas de Gortari, but he did militate. He lived in Mexico City and was an official of the National Consumer Institute ”.

The Governor of Morelos says that he invited López Obrador to break with the PRI after the 1988 presidential election and it was then that his departure from the Institutional Revolutionary was finally finalized, although he had decided since 1983, of which only he is aware.

During 1988 he published From splendor to shadow: the restored Republic; Tabasco 1867-1876, by the Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco, second part of The first steps; Tabasco 1810-1867, historical review of Tabasco from Independence to the Revolution.

(See link 24)

Category: Economy

Theme: Remittances

Phrase: “In May remittances increased by 18 percent compared to April.”

Result: True

In April 2020, remittances amounted to 2,861 million dollars. In May the figure increased to $ 3,379 million, this represents an increase of 18.10 percent.
(See link 25)

Category: Economy

Theme: Dollar price

Phrase: “It came to be more than 25 pesos per dollar, yesterday and at 22.60”.

Result: True

According to Banco de México (Banxico) or, on March 24, 2020, the price of the dollar, published in the Official Gazette of the Federation (DOF), rose to 25.07 pesos.

In addition, the following day, it had a slight increase to 25.11 pesos, also published in the DOF.

On July 2, 2020, in the DOF it was published that the price of the dollar was 22.80 pesos.

The determination price was 22.52 pesos, while the price to settle obligations was 23.08 pesos.

The interbank dollar stood at 22.4750 pesos on July 2.
(See link 26)

Category: Government

Topic: Legal Framework

Phrase: “How was it that corruption was removed as a serious crime? When? At the time of Salinas, 1994 ”.

Result: Misleading

After a hasty legislative process, which also made controversial changes to other sections of the Magna Carta, reforms to constitutional article 20 were published on September 3, 1993.

The amended text, which formed the fourth constitutional regime of provisional freedom, was as follows:

Article 20.- In any criminal order process, the accused shall have the following guarantees:

  1. Immediately upon request, the judge must grant him provisional release under bond, as long as the estimated amount of reparation for the damage and pecuniary sanctions that may be imposed on the accused are guaranteed, and are not crimes in which its seriousness the law expressly prohibits granting this benefit.

Then a limited number of crimes considered serious were established, so it was during the presidential term of former President Carlos Salinas de Gortari that changes were made on the subject of preventive detention and provisional freedom, but it was the Union Congress that led to carry out the modifications, not the controversial leader as implied by AMLO, so the phrase is considered misleading-

(See links 27 and 28)

LINKS / SOURCES:

  1. http://www.imss.gob.mx/prensa/archivo/202006/391
  2. https://www.jornada.com.mx/ultimas/economia/2020/05/13/confirma-el-imss-555-mil-247-empleos-perdidos-en-abril-9076.html
  3. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t1hLPvUkfCde1wglfjAh–r8NpLONbRf/view
  4. http://sina.conagua.gob.mx/sina/almacenamientoPresas.php
  5. http://www.imss.gob.mx/prensa/archivo/202005/282
  6. http://www.imss.gob.mx/prensa/archivo/202006/391
  7. https://mexicocomovamos.mx/?s=seccion&id=98
  8. http://sil.gobernacion.gob.mx/Archivos/Documentos/2019/04/asun_3871936_20190429_1556226139.pdf
  9. http://gaceta.diputados.gob.mx/gp_iniciativas.html
  10. http://www5.diputados.gob.mx/index.php/esl/Comunicacion/Boletines/2020/Abril/18/3584-Diputadas-y-diputados-de-todos-los-grupos-parlamentarios-presentan-59- reform-initiatives
  11. https://centralelectoral.ine.mx/2017/12/08/apruebe-consejo-general-ajuste-presupuesto-del-ine-para-2018/
  12. https://centralelectoral.ine.mx/2019/12/16/ajusta-consejo-general-presupuesto-del-ine-2020/
  13. https://p2018.ine.mx/#/presidencia/nacional/1/1/1/1
  14. https://prep2012.ife.org.mx/prep/NACIONAL/PresidenteNacionalVPC.html
  15. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-44678613
  16. https://www.gob.mx/presidencia/prensa/mexico-presenta-candidatura-de-jesus-seade-como-director-general-de-la-omc-anuncia-andante-lopez-obrador
  17. https://p2018.ine.mx/#/presidencia/nacional/1/1/1/1
  18. http://www.consulta.mx/index.php/encuestas-e-investigaciones/evaluacion-de-gobierno/item/1350-lopez-obrador-aprobacion-promedio-mayo-2020
  19. http://www.informeseguridad.cns.gob.mx/files/homicidios_30062020_v2.pdf
  20. https://www.gob.mx/bienestar/prensa/pagaran-en-julio-cuatro-meses-de-las-pensiones-para-el-bienestar
  21.  https://www.gob.mx/bienestar/prensa/en-apoyo-a-la-economia-popular-se-adelanta-pago-de-pensiones-de-adultos-mayores-y-personas-con-discapacidad? idiom = is
  22. https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?sector=1&accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CE81&locale=es
  23. http://www.imss.gob.mx/prensa/archivo/202005/282
  24. https://www.cidob.org/biografias_lideres_politicos/america_del_norte/mexico/andres_manuel_lopez_obrador
  25. https://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?accion=consultarSeries
  26. https://www.banxico.org.mx/tipcamb/tipCamIHAction.do
  27. http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S2007-49642018000100207
  28. http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/ref/dof/CPEUM_ref_129_03sep93.pdf

Source: verificado.com.mx, eleconomista.com.mx

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