This Saturday, July 11, the states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Michoacán will experience one of the most challenging weather days of the weekend due to persistent rainfall caused by the interaction of tropical waves, low-pressure channels, and other atmospheric systems. According to Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN), these states will remain under stormy conditions for several consecutive days.
For Saturday, Chiapas and Oaxaca face the highest risk, with intense rainfall of 75 to 150 millimeters forecast, particularly across northern, eastern, and southern Chiapas, as well as eastern and southeastern Oaxaca. The rain is expected to be accompanied by lightning and possible hail, increasing the risk of flooding, landslides, and rising river and stream levels.
In Michoacán, weather alerts also remain in effect. Very heavy rainfall of 50 to 75 millimeters is expected across the northern and central parts of the state, along with thunderstorms and possible hail. Mexico’s National Water Commission (Conagua) warned that the heaviest rainfall could cause localized flooding, road disruptions, and landslides in mountainous areas, urging residents to take extra precautions.
Other States Expected to Receive Heavy Rain on Saturday, July 11
In addition to Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Michoacán, the SMN forecast indicates that rainfall will affect much of the country, with varying levels of intensity.
Very Heavy Rain (50–75 mm)
- Sonora
- Chihuahua
- Sinaloa
- Coahuila
- Nuevo León
- Tamaulipas
- Jalisco
- Veracruz
- Tabasco
Heavy Rain (25–50 mm)
- Durango
- Zacatecas
- Aguascalientes
- San Luis Potosí
- Guanajuato
- Guerrero
- State of Mexico
- Mexico City
- Morelos
- Puebla
- Campeche
- Yucatán
- Quintana Roo
Rain Showers (5–25 mm)
- Baja California Sur
- Nayarit
- Colima
- Querétaro
- Hidalgo
- Tlaxcala
The SMN also warned that heavy and very heavy rainfall may be accompanied by lightning, hail, and strong wind gusts, with the potential to increase river levels, trigger landslides, and cause flooding in low-lying areas. Residents are advised to stay informed through official weather updates.
Weather Outlook for Sunday, July 12
The rainy pattern will continue on Sunday, with Chiapas and Oaxaca once again among the states expected to receive the heaviest rainfall in the country. Forecasts call for 75 to 150 millimeters of rain in southern Chiapas and northern and western Oaxaca. Similar rainfall totals are also expected in Nayarit, Jalisco, Puebla, Veracruz, and Guerrero.
Meanwhile, Michoacán is expected to receive very heavy rainfall of 50 to 75 millimeters, mainly in the northern part of the state. Conagua continues to monitor the possible development of a low-pressure area with cyclonic potential south of Mexico’s Pacific coast, which is expected to sustain rainy conditions over the coming days.
Weather Forecast for Monday, July 13
The start of next week will bring little relief. On Monday, July 13, the SMN forecasts very heavy to intense rainfall in Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, and Guerrero, while Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Michoacán will continue to experience heavy to very heavy precipitation.
The forecast also includes the possibility of:
- Lightning storms
- Hail
- High waves along the southern Pacific coast
- Landslides in mountainous regions
Authorities recommend staying informed through official weather reports and avoiding crossing rivers, streams, or flooded roadways.
Source: cronista
